China and the U.S. are often portrayed as struggling for influence around the world. But to look at it this way is to risk a self-fulfilling prophecy, as this view implies that international relations are a zero-sum game and are, in fact, about being “either with or against” one or the other. European countries do, for instance, have quite elaborate contacts with Beijing – and the U.S. does not see that as a power struggle about influence there.
African states are enjoying the liberty to broaden the scope of their external relations, going beyond the limitations that the U.S.-Soviet cold war inflicted on them. This has several aspects: First, it is comforting to be in demand by numerous partners and to see some more options beyond the previously marginalized position. Second, it gives additional choices and makes international relations more complex, but also more flexible. Third, most African states do not want to throw themselves at either the U.S. or China, but want to be members of the international community with diversified foreign relations.
Thus, to avoid a U.S.-China “cold war,” we should ensure that African states do not face an either-or choice. The development toward a more multipolar world is a fact of life, with not only China but also India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and others playing an increasingly important role in their regions and globally. This might be making the world a less predictable place, as there is more than one or two actors to consider. But it is the world beyond the cold war. We should engage constructively with it — and leave African states their choices in this world.
Daily chart: world peace. This global peace index produced by The Institute for Economics and Peace, a think-tank, is composed of 23 indicators ranging from murder rates to weapons imports to conflicts being fought. It throws up some surprising results, such as that China was more “peaceful” than America in 2007.
Note that Brazil improved :]
Daily chart: America vs China. America’s economy made up 22% of world GDP in 2011; China’s just 10%. The perception in some countries that America is no longer the world’s pre-eminent economy is therefore somewhat premature. Nevertheless, on current trends China will surpass America somewhere around 2018.
Threat Inflation with Micah Zenko
After yet another foiled terrorist plot, what does the United States really have to fear? Editor Gideon Rose discusses “threat hyping” with author Micah Zenko, who argues that the nation is much safer than politicians and government officials would lead the public to believe. A near-nuclear Iran, unstable Middle East, occasionally aggressive Russia, and unstoppable China do not, in fact, pose these often cited dangers. Cutting military spending should not incite such anxiety, when even international terrorism does not qualify as a real threat to the existence or freedom of the United States.
China is now the world’s second-biggest film market after America. It has a booming home-grown film industry, making historical dramas and romantic comedies, but foreign blockbusters are the big money-earners. Although most films are pirated on release and viewed online and on dodgy DVDs, the rising middle classes are increasingly willing to fork out for a night at the cinema. Last year China’s box-office take rose by more than 30%, to over $2 billion, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. The number of cinema screens in China has doubled in five years, to nearly 11,000—again, second only to America. China’s box-office revenues may overtake America’s by 2020.
Yet China will not grant Hollywood the access it desires. Until recently only 20 foreign films could be screened at Chinese cinemas each year. In February the number increased to 34—though only if the extra 14 are shown in 3D or large format.
While western nations are reluctant to open up trade with Africa and prefer to support the Continent by donating money to poor countries, the Chinese have taken a different approach. There is an old Chinese saying that goes: “Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, you feed him for life.” China is living up to that mantra and has dominated Africa in every aspect.
The West is baffled as to how deeply embedded China’s tentacles have become in Africa, in such a short period of time. The Chinese have succeeded in investing in Africa’s infrastructure and are also training African workers to prepare them for the job market. This approach has yielded trust between native Africans and the Chinese, because Africans do not view Chinese as attempting to recolonize them.
The West on the other hand is not trusted by native Africans. Every move is second-guessed. Every donation is looked at suspiciously with the recipients wondering when the strings attached to each donation will be pulled. The Chinese have refrained from sending any military-related assistance to the Continent…
Daily chart: internet economies. Britain’s internet economy is now bigger than its construction and education sectors. But Europe as a whole punches below its weight, mainly because its internet economy is held back by a lack of a single digital market.
Books about China, popular and scholarly, continue to pour off the presses. In this ever expanding literature, there is a subdivision that could be entitled ‘Under Western Eyes’. The larger part of it consists of works that appear to be about China, or some figure or topic from China, but whose real frame of reference, determining the optic, is the United States. Typically written by functionaries of the state, co-opted or career, they have as their underlying question: ‘China – what’s in it for us?’ Rather than Sinology proper, they are Sino-Americana. Ezra Vogel’s biography of Deng Xiaoping is an instructive example. Detached for duties on the National Intelligence Council under Clinton (he assures the reader that the CIA has vetted his book for improper disclosures), Vogel is a fixture at Harvard, where the house magazine hails Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China as the ‘capstone to a brilliant academic career’.
There have been demonstrations in European cities, a petition by 2.5 million people and resignations by officials involved with the passage into law of the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA). The opposition is growing. Several countries (Germany, Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and the Netherlands) have expressed their concerns. And now the European Commission, once a supporter, has withheld its signature and referred the draft law to the European Court of Justice to rule on whether ACTA could deny fundamental freedoms.
Daily chart: how long leaders stay in office in different countries. Countries in the Middle East tend to hold on to their leaders longer than anywhere else (a little over eight years on average). Africa comes next at more than seven years.

